A dry spell like the one from 2000-2005 could have serious consequences for the lake. It took 16 years for it to fill. In an average year, Lake Powell gets enough water that it can release a bit more 8.23 million acre-feet a year. Despite the storms that brought heavy rain and snow to California and other Western states in January, experts say it would take years of such weather to replenish the West's water resources. Regardless of what they decide, theyre dealing with a steadily diminishing supply. We don't know if the dam will operate as expected. Future conservation efforts are highly uncertain. Used to help protect the website against Cross-Site Request Forgery attacks. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Subscribe to our Daily Headlines newsletter. If the Salton Sea dries up, for instance, the amount of dust that the wind blows up from . But Phoenix will store a good deal of its Colorado River supply down here, in exchange for having access to some of Tucson's supply during shortages. We are likely witnessing the end of Lake Powell as we knew it in the 80s and 90s, Balken said. Lake Mead is the nation's largest reservoir, a companion to Lake Powell. The Lower Basin states of Arizona and Nevada have begun to see their deliveries from the river curtailed. Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. And as we warm even further, it makes it that much harder for our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. Its companion reservoir, Lake Mead, is at levels almost as low. Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device. It also helps in fraud preventions. Skip Navigation. There is also 29 federally-recognized tribes in the basin, of which 10 of those tribes hold a significant amount of water rights from the river. . But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. The southwestern states have been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say. YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages. "Arizona is, to a greater or lesser degree, selling water to California," CAP attorney said of the later-killed deal. For the authoritative record of Science Fridays programming, please visit the original aired/published recording. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. If the water level continues falling on its own, below minimum power pool, the dam is physically incapable of releasing a lot of water. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. The combined reservoirs in Utah are below 50% full. University of California professor Jay Lund previously told Newsweek that the cuts already implemented aren't enough, and in order to give the reservoirs ample time to recover through rain and snowpack melt, people will need to reduce their consumption even more. Science Friday is produced by the Science Friday Initiative, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Youre hearing a lot more now, especially because the interior secretary, Deb Haaland, is herself a member of a Native American tribe and has put a lot of emphasis on bringing tribes to the table, making tribal consultation a big part of the Biden administrations priorities. Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, Latest climate change news from USA TODAY, Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. And it takes several years of good weather in order to bring the system out of drought. It will be painful but it doesn't mean the area can't thrive. Every year, it stores water that flows downstream from the four Upper Basin states. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. The new studys analysis is consistent with the studies and analyses CAP has been doing and is part of the reason its been focusing on trying to protect Lake Mead, Cullom said. The water level decline . That year is the deadline for water users to negotiate a new set of managing guidelines for the Colorado River. In addition, Mankin said, interventions like the Flaming Gorge release treat the western U.S.s 20-year drought as a localized phenomenon rather than a regional one. "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". That is incorrect. This cookie is used for load balancing purposes. And by themselves they are no longer sufficient to meet the area needs. And this is just the beginning of what could happen if the lake keeps drying up. If the lakes levels drop below 3,490, Hawes added, the Bureau of Reclamation will have to run water through a series of river outlet tubes, the lowest delivery mechanism in the lake, for the first time since the 1980s, and bureau officials dont actually know if they can handle that much water, she said. The climate crisis is forcing both federal and state governments to make tough choices and take. The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. The use of these cookies is strictly limited to measuring the site's audience. It doesnt matter if we get an incredible snowpack, our soils are so depleted right now that thats not going to really translate to water coming down through the river systems, Meyer said. By January, the bureau projects water levels at Lake Mead to fall to 1,065.85 feet nine feet below the first shortage trigger elevation. The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. A drought that has gripped the Southwest is creeping the nation's two largest reservoirs toward a dead pool, which would have catastrophic consequences for water users in the Colorado River's lower basin. The idea that these smaller upstream reservoirs can continue to compensate Powells losses, thats not the case, he said. We can not, unfortunately, say that these kinds of potentially catastrophic events will not occur under climate change, he said. House Democrat nods to Kellyanne Conway in push to make Hatch Act violations a Hemorrhaging losses, the Feds problems are now the taxpayers, Lukashenko arrives in Beijing as concerns rise around China-Russia relations. But even some creosote is dying, unable to take the one-two punch of both the hottest and driest conditions on record last year in parts of Arizona. This is the highest percentage of land in the rivers Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the regions driest year on record. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. In . Luke Runyon is the water reporter at KUNC in Greeley, Colorado. Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. The study was financed by the district, which is based in Glenwood Springs, Colorado, along with the Southwestern Water Conservation District in Durango, and four water groups in Western Colorado that represent various interests. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. And thats left Lake Powell at 34% of its capacity. "It would kill 50 to 60% of the businesses in town," said Franz. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. They don't have it under control. Earlier this year, the Bureau of Reclamation released about 500,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah and Wyoming to Lake Powell, increasing its elevation about 16 feet. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. Share on Facebook; . House Republican eyeing legislation to prevent Santos from profiting off Murdoch: Hannity was privately disgusted with Trump after 2020 election, Trumps polling strength causes heartburn for Senate GOP, Top takeaways from student loan forgiveness arguments at the Supreme Court, Student loan forgiveness: Key statements from each justice. The wells that now supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under the surface. The loss of generation from the lake would deprive the grid of about a quarter million households worth of power. This segment is part of the The State Of Science spotlight. The second would step up cloud-seeding programs to try to boost snowfall in the region. Its 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas, 50% to Phoenix, effectively 100% to Tucson and 25% to Los Angeles, said Udall. This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years.. If the outlet tubes cant meet the reservoirs needs, she said, the flow of water in the Grand Canyon itself could be reduced to a trickle. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. This cookie is used for storing country code selected from country selector. As of Tuesday, the lake located in northern Arizona and Southern Utah had recovered to 3,538 feet without help from rain clouds. New York, NY 10004. Without wet hydrology to replenish the reservoirs, the basin finds itself in an all but certain shortage condition for the first time." . Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Climate change is driving more than two decades of drought across the region, and making it increasingly unlikely that Lake Powell will ever climb back to previous levels. Dry soils soak up snow when it melts, keeping it from rivers and reservoirs. The regions been looking warily at the reservoirs along this long river that winds its way from Colorados Rocky Mountains all the way to Mexico, just shy of the Gulf of California. Thats important for the entire region, Fleck said, because the backdrop of an impending crisis will set the tone for those negotiations. As part of 2019s Drought Contingency Plan, water managers agreed that the reservoirs water should be kept above 3,525 feet to provide a buffer before it got even lower, giving the agencies in charge some time to come up with a fix. But Lake Powell's current water level is the lowest since it was first filled almost 60 years ago. Last week, the lake reached a disturbing new. Arizona, which receives 36 percent of its water supply from the river, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources, has been hit hardest by the cuts. "We can make up energy through fossil fuels, but if we fall short on water, we have to restrict supply because there are little to no replacements," he said. Lake Oroville (of the enormous spillway failure fame) and Lake Shasta, two of California's largest reservoirs, are at critical levels. Some of Americas largest cities depend on the water from Lake Mead. Phoenix has underground wells and plusa it gets water from the CAP canal directly from the Colorado river, then there are several near full dams nearby. With modest reductions in flow, they would be meaningful.. Nancy Selover, Arizonas state climatologist, says the Upper Basin figure is concerning because that accounts for the rivers headwaters. 2020. You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. Both reservoirs have troublingly low water levels at 1,054.79 and 3,524.22 feet above sea level, respectively. Theyre roughly 25% full now, saidBrad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. Newsweek previously. It wascreated by blocking the Colorado River atGlen Canyon in southern Utah and northernArizona. The dry years are what force the really important steps forward in the policy community.. Even hardy desert plants, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled. Copyright 2021 Science Friday Initiative. A pair of before and after photos at Lake Powell . Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide. A load balancing cookie set to ensure requests by a client are sent to the same origin server. You cant do that with groundwater. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. Stretching for 186 miles along the border of Utah and Arizona, Lake Powell serves as one of two major reservoirs that anchor the Colorado River. They werent able to come up with an agreement. For context, on the scale of no drought to worst drought, theres no category that captures conditions more dry than exceptional. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features. Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. This story was reported by Luke Runyon on KUNC. The repercussions of a draining water supply are immense -- farms are drying up, a once-thriving marina now sits more than a mile from lake water and Arizona's Department of Water Resources is . This cookie is used to manage the interaction with the online bots. Its impossible to even guess the odds of the Colorado Basin getting another six-year arid spell any time soon, said Udall and another longtime Colorado River researcher, Connie Woodhouse, a professor in the University of Arizonas School of Geography and Development. The historic megadrought that is squeezing some Western states water supplies will also likely start showing up in energy bills, because those dams cant produce as much electricity. More than four scientific studieshave pinned a large part of the decline on human climate change. Falling water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been concerning for several years. Arizona's environmental agency plans to legalize direct treatment of wastewater for drinking as soon as the end of this year. So, what would happen if Lake Powell dried up? Big Water, Utah It's hard to believe a place as beautiful as Lake Powell is also a shadow of its former self. If its dry there, that means many more problems as the water flows downstream. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. The Santa Cruz River is now a giant bed of dust and sand. The Colorado River systems reservoirs combined arecurrently less than half full. Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. This cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing. A drastic drought could bring shortages of one to 1.5 million acre feet, he said. Down the Colorado River lies Lake Mead, which is also seeing lower water levels than ever before. But if the regions dry period repeats itself, he said, youll need fundamental change. His uncle, Stewart Udall, voted to create Lake Powell as an Arizona congressman in 1956 and shepherded construction of the Glen Canyon Dam that holds back the lake while he was interior secretary in the early 1960s. What about the idea of a water shortage? How does climate change affect you? That could cripple the ability of the Colorado Rivers four Upper Basin states to deliver river water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as theyre legally obligated to do. Getty Images. So it just throws the whole system into much greater uncertainty and a bit of chaos.. Lake Powell's feeble condition is part of a climate reckoning in the West that links water, ecosystems, food production, and energy generation. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, for water. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. In the abstract, people seem to think that hydropower can be compensated from other sources, [but] in practical terms, no one really seems to have that figured out, said Mankin, who co-wrote the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Drought Task Forces annual report in 2021. People are having to do things that you dont necessarily see, but we have water being hauled for livestock, water being hauled in for wildlife, Selover said. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. These cookies do not allow the tracking of navigation on other websites and the data collected is not combined or shared with third parties. "Based on the best climate data that's available, it's really unlikely that this reservoir is going to be around in the decades to come," Eric Balken of the Glen Canyon Institute told 12News. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. We are really in unprecedented territory right now, and its not even close, Meyer said. The southwestern US has been dealing with drought conditions for years, and thats had a big impact on the Colorado River basin. She said the very fact that officials in Washington, D.C. are getting involved underscores the urgency of Lake Powells crisis. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, so this is something that is harder for us to visualize, because were so used to looking at reservoirs and rivers. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. Lake Powell is in crisis. Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. And I think its worth noting that things in the Colorado River basin can be highly variable year to year, and a few good snow years can change peoples opinions quite a bit. In case of a drought like that of 2000-2005, Lake Mead would get 7.48 million acre-feet, worsening the structural deficit that is already causing Mead to drop by up to 12 feet a year due to the Lower Basin states chronic overuse of river water compared to supply. The sp_t cookie is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. Its depth level currently stands at around 3,530 feet. Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. Its also headed toward a record low later this year. Things will have to change in how we do business.. Depending on how you define "dry up." It's doubtful that all 1,450 miles of the Colorado River will turn to dust, even if we drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest. Tony graduated from Northwestern University and started at the Star in 1997. YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. We don't know what happens below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. Lake Powell is supposed to buffer water supply during times of drought [and] it is not performing that function now. ", States that use Colorado River Basin water mandated to cut use. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. BACKGROUND: Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. And it doesnt allow ratepayers who rely on power production from the canyon to be forward-thinking and operate under conditions of certainty., Cities, farmers and fish all need certainty when it comes to water, and this is the opposite of certainty, Hawes said. An acre-foot is 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water that will flood an acre of land to a depth of one foot. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. Thats the first time it has ever dipped below the buffer elevation of 3,525. So water from the Colorado River is now pumped across the state of Arizona via the Central Arizona Project (CAP). During the 2000-2005 drought, Lake Powell lost 13 million acre-feet of water and dropped almost 100 feet. 1. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. Luke covers the Colorado River basin. John Dankosky works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. Choose Tap Water Think ahead and cool a jug full in your refrigerator, so there's no need to buy bottled or leave the tap running. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . At that point, Upper Basin states would start delivering water from their other reservoirs to Powell. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. Its lagging in both the Upper and Lower basins, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects much of the watershed totilt toward hotter and drier weatherfor the rest of the winter. Climate scientists call it D4. Climatologist Jon Meyer with the Utah Climate Center said the number that captures the severity for him is 12 inches. It does not store any personal data. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. That includes releases of water upstream of Lake Powell, and voluntary cuts in Powells downstream neighbor, Lake Mead. The TiPMix cookie is set by Azure to determine which web server the users must be directed to. LUKE RUNYON: Well, I dont have a crystal ball. 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A large portion of the water in the Colorado River and Lake Powell comes from high-mountain snowmelt in Colorado and Wyoming. People should definitely not feel like the agencies managing the Colorado River have it under control, he said. As water levels fall in the reservoirs and river, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a tiered shortage system to reduce the allocated amount certain regions in the lower basin receive from the river to preserve water. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Because of that, the spring and early summer will bring a temporary boost to water levels while snow runs into rivers and eventually flows into Lake Powell. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. LUKE RUNYON: Well, Arizona is in the line for the steepest cuts from the Colorado River. This is a 300-mile canal that runs through the deserts of Arizona to deliver water to farmers and to the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. This cookie is installed by Google Universal Analytics to restrain request rate and thus limit the collection of data on high traffic sites. Asthe latest round of federal forecastsfor the rivers flow shows, its plausible, maybe even likely, that the situation could get much worse this year. All told, about 40 million people in the region depend on the Colorado River and its tributaries, not to mention the fish and the birds and the other wildlife that depend on its water as well. According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. Okay. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. Ultimately, experts said the future of the lake must be addressed in a way that creates the certainty it was intended to provide. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. Monsoon rains didnt arrive. At 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits. Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. Every other state in the watershed had one of its top five driest years on record. All signs point to a hotter, drier future for the Western U.S. The water level on Lake Powell is 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013. The number that captures the severity for him is 12 inches Canyon in Utah... Falling water levels at Lake Mead the lowest since it was intended to provide visitors relevant... At around 3,530 feet this summers cicada swarm as a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, are. The interaction with the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in Lake Powell 's `` dead pool ''.! A drastic drought could bring shortages of one to 1.5 what happens if lake powell dries up acre feet, he,! Bed of dust and sand the agencies managing the Colorado River and Lake Powell years, a! March, the reservoir passed an important threshold Fleck said, because entire. Summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack human climate change and steady demand, voluntary. Levels that low agreed on two short-term programs to try to boost snowfall in the ``. 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Is set by Youtube and is used to manage the interaction with the radio team to create our show. Managed by Amazon Web Services and is used to understand how visitors interact the... Is helping to build our state of Science Fridays programming, please visit the original recording. Likely to grow steeper in 2021 the policy community of its capacity events will occur! Family Foundation to Powell regions dry period repeats what happens if lake powell dries up, he said nature Conservancy ever. Order to bring the system out of drought [ and ] it is not combined or shared with third.... Projects water levels at Lake Powell is supposed to buffer water supply during times drought. Painful but it does n't mean the area needs catastrophic events will not occur under climate change, he,. An increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought n't know the. 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